Monday, April 07, 2008

1 Stock's Collapse Reveals a Pattern Others Might Follow

As many of our subscribers confirm - our technology works - really well. Here's an example that features option filters recently added and Bear Stearns. I think this example is more relevant as we prepare to absorb one of the last of the giants in the financial sector that's been exposed to the sub-prime mortgage disaster: Citibank (its earnings are scheduled for release on April 18th).

Let's review the timeline that was the BSC collapse - as summarized by our friends at FierceFinance:
I recall CNBC's Fast Money talker, Jon Najarian, talking about put option contracts valuing BSC at $20 - shocking at the time when BSC was trading in the $60s. That was crazy talk! Or was it?

A Startling Case of Foreshadowing
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Source: Trade-Ideas data

Take a look at the raw data Trade-Ideas' servers were recording during this fateful week for BSC - pay notice to the 'Prev Put Volume' column:

From Monday, March 10th to Tuesday, March 11th (a whole day before the rumors started flying), Trade-Ideas picked up a 5-fold increase!!!
I don't care about who knew what before the official news - if this is a pattern that can alert me to future massive sell-offs before they happen, then I'm simply letting Trade-Ideas be my eyes on the market - looking for previously unseen patterns and bringing them to my attention for action.

Specifically: Can a higher than usual spike in put-option volume lead to a significant drop-off in price? How large must the unusual volume be? How long is the optimal time to hold a possible short position?

I plan on putting together a strategy that answers these questions for us and watch as we approach the Citibank earnings release. Until I post that strategy, here are the raw ingredients I will be using to build it: http://www.trade-ideas.com/Help.html#wsf_MinPCAV

Related Article:

Option Traders Will Love These New Filters in Trade-Ideas - http://marketmovers.blogspot.com/2008/02/option-traders-will-love-these-new.html


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

When do u plan on posting this strategy using options? It will be very interesting to see if we can correlate high puts volume to a sell off and vice-versa

Thanks as always you guys are doing a fantastic job.
I am hoping you can convince your ScottradeElite partners to embed your oddsmaker into there Elite package