Thursday, January 24, 2008

Knowing the Market's Mood is Better than Guessing What Comes Next

Figuring out exactly what the market will do at the very next moment is tough to do. Understanding what mood the market is in, however, proves to be not only easier, but eventually leads to better accuracy about what comes next.

The beauty of Trade-Ideas' tools is that you get to ask and answer your questions about the market's mood.

Trade-Ideas allows you to develop any theme or behavior about the market like,
  • "Are recent new lows enticing buyers?"
  • "Do bounces in this market have strength or are they dead cats?"
  • "Do any of these themes behave differently in the afternoon than in the morning?"
  • "What are the odds of a winning trade on any of these themes in the market right now?"

Aren't these better questions to be asking than "Is this stock going up or down?"

Subscribers who use The OddsMaker (our event-based backtesting tool) already know how to answer the last 2 questions in particular. But everyone can answer all these questions with some observations of a strategy/theme's real-time results or even a look at its History.

I'm linking to a previous post that highlights some ways to model these questions. Take a look and further modify them to fit your unique trading plan. If you are a subscriber to TI Pro but don't use The OddsMaker (yet), leave me a comment with your take on how these themes would work in your trading plan or any other questions, and I'll add credits for your free use of our backtesting tool.

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