Thursday, June 08, 2006

Calculating the Odds in Real-Time

There are a lot of things happening behind the scenes at Trade-Ideas this summer. One of the more exciting developments is a new premium product that we are planning to release in the next few months.

This new product is right now being called our "Odds Maker". The idea is this: Take an alert (e.g., Running Up) set up for one direction, long or short (not both at the same time) and apply the "Odds Maker" to it to see how many stocks triggering the alert were up 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, or 60 minutes after the alert took place. You can of course calculate the odds of a stock being down any amount as well. You also have the capability to use the close as well as the next day's open as possible exits. Trailing stops are an option to protect gains and minimize losses. In effect see how well alerts predict future movements. Wait until you see when we are done with it.

The "Odds Maker" works in real-time and continuously updates statistics based on new data that is coming in to the alert window. We make some simple assumptions: 1) You are buying the first alert for any symbol that comes through your configuration. 2) You are only getting into one symbol one time during the day.

We believe that this add on will really give our customers the ability to get solid feedback from any strategy and help them design alerts that give high odds trades.

Here is a sample from our lab that has had high odds of closing higher. This strategy is looking for a big volume move up through the 200 Day Moving average.

Odds Maker Example

Sound interesting? All feedback is welcome.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You guys have a heck of a product going. When do think you are going to release this odds maker?

Jon

Anonymous said...

"You are only getting into one symbol one time during the day."

Does this mean it only looks at the first stock selected? OR does it mean that it only looks at the first alert for EACH stock for that day?

TI Maven said...

The software supposes that you are getting into the first alert for each stock symbol that day.

To answer the other comment. We are testing this internally and hope to release it by mid Summer.

Anonymous said...

How far back do these odds go?

Anonymous said...

Hi Will this odds maker tool made available to scottrade elite users via your integration?

TI Maven said...

The odds go back approximately 3 weeks.

As far as the Odds Maker and Scottrade, that will have to wait until we discuss the matter with Scottrade management. The Odds Maker will be a new premium product so we are still working out the pricing.

Anonymous said...

2 comments: Trade-Ideas 2.0, KUDOS. It looks HOT and it brings one thing I missed from the Web interface: the help on filters and icons.

The "Odds Maker": Wow... This has to be one of the MOST exciting feature available on Trade-Ideas. I'm currently doing manually what it will do automatically and much more.
I can't wait to test the "odds maker". I love the way it's going to work and the assumptions you make make total sense (I'm used to backtesting).
I only wish the 3 weeks backtesting period could be extended in future releases (maybe a different TI premium product) to several months or maybe years... Am I dreaming in technicolor now?